Fall 2026 Mortgage Rate Insights

Mortgage rates are climbing again. As of September 23, the average 30-year fixed rate hit 7.26%, the highest level in about 20 months, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2007. According to ResiClub’s Lance Lambert, three forces are behind the jump. First, inflation won’t settle down: energy prices spiked after the Iran conflict began in March, and inflation was still running at 3.4% in August, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Second, the job market is holding up, with unemployment at 4.1%, so the Fed has room to keep fighting inflation. It raised rates on September 16 for the first time in three years, and markets expect more increases. Third, the AI data center building boom is keeping the economy running hot, and it’s competing for the same workers, power, and materials as everything else.

What does this mean for you? Before this spike, affordability had been slowly improving, with incomes growing faster than home prices. Higher rates have stalled some of that progress for now, especially for buyers and for owners who want to sell and buy their next home. It helps to keep some perspective, though. Rates above 7% feel high because we got used to the unusually low rates of 2009 to 2021, and many analysts see today’s levels as more historically normal. Buyers may also find more room to negotiate this fall, since the market usually slows down this time of year. If you’re wondering how this affects your plans, reach out. I’m always happy to run the numbers with you.